Forecasting Communities

AI.Metaculus

AI.metaculus is a forecasting community predicting the development trajectory of advanced AI.

With a bit more than a hundred users, including superforecaster-equivalents and machine learning researchers, we collaborate to build quantitative models, research historical reference classes, discuss uncertainties and turn it all into forecasts.

We think building and maintaining this community is important for several reasons:

  • Aggregate calibrated predictions about important AI timeline questions.
  • Provides a centralised place to facilitate high-quality discussion of AI development within the AI safety, policy and adjacent communities.
  • Allows us to understand what works, what doesn’t, and what’s missing from the (AI) forecasting ecosystem, by experimenting together with an active community of both producers and consumers of forecasts
  • Provides a space to learn and build strong forecasting and reasoning skills