Parallel sources, generates, and improves AI forecasting questions. We think this crucial in order to build a repository of predictions which are not just accurate, but also useful to organisations making progress on AI safety and policy.
Below are a subset of the questions we’ve listed:
You can find all questions in our question database:
We’re also setting up various initiatives to improve our ability to capture important uncertainties in clear questions, including the Resolution Dictionary and the Resolution Council.
We can help with operationalizing question ideas
If you have uncertainties you think it would be useful to forecast, do email us.
When making your suggestions:
- Feel free to be brief, hand-wavy, etc.
- We’ve found that in early stages the gist underlying a question is more important than the exact formulation, so make sure to mention why you care about your suggested question
- In case questions are promising, the Parallel team has the bandwidth to help with operationalising, gathering background data and crafting good resolution conditions.
- In case something is hard to capture using only a single question, we can get at it using a “Bayesian question cluster” of multiple related questions.